Q4 – 2025:
The fourth quarter was dominated by headlines and macro headwinds. Early in October, a government shutdown brought the economy to a standstill, resulting in a 43-day shutdown that disrupted economic reporting. As the quarter came to a close, it failed to deliver the historically observed “Santa Claus Rally”. While major indices posted modest returns, beneath the surface, individual stocks experienced significant dispersion. Many momentum-driven stocks that had generated strong year-to-date gains declined sharply, while value stocks, which had lagged for much of the year, began to gain traction.
(Download the full PDF here.)
Q3 – 2025:
Markets moved from a tumultuous Q2 to a much calmer Q3, quietly marching forward and continuing to hit fresh all-time highs. Thematically, investment within the artificial intelligence sector remained strong throughout the quarter. It has very much been a stock pickers’ market with many individual names providing double-digit returns for the quarter and year-to-date, with certain sectors going hyperbolic while value stocks lagged behind. Gold continued its steady climb as geopolitical tensions increased, and the dollar declined further.
The first Federal Reserve rate cut in a year is now in the books, after a very public pressure campaign, with expectations for more rate cuts to come. The economy remains well positioned, yet that strength may be tenuous, and vigilance is recommended to navigate these waters. (Download the full PDF here.)
Q2 – 2025:
What a long strange trip it’s been. In a mere three months major U.S. indices dropped precipitously, nearing bear market levels, only to turn around sharply and regain new highs in the fastest rebound in history. The April 2nd tariff announcement led to markets declining sharply, only to have the extreme tariffs given a 90-day delay a week later. This served as a “Put” on the markets, allowing volatility to subside and markets to price in the fact that Trump was not going to allow the American economy, as measured by the stock market, to fall apart. Company earnings came in strong, indicating the economy was still on strong footing, further pushing markets higher. Cryptocurrency regulation eased and adoption of the asset class was strong throughout the quarter, with billions of dollars flowing into crypto based products.
But wait, there’s more! Geopolitical tensions flared, with Israel and Iran bombing each other incessantly until the U.S. stepped in, and in a stunning reversal of policy conducted airstrikes on nuclear facilities, reportedly impairing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.. The “one, Big, Beautiful Bill” was signed into law, extending tax cuts, expanding federal debt further and making historic cuts to Medicaid among other things. As the July 9th trade deal date came with only one deal with the UK actually coming to fruition, another extension was offered pushing the trade deadline to August 1. (Download the full PDF here.)
Q1 – 2025:
The first quarter of the year was remarkable in many ways. The velocity at which the new administration came in and began to enact policy changes was swift and ferocious. Intraday, individual stocks swung violently in response as uncertainty mounted. Growth
stocks, which had been leading markets the past couple of years, took a backseat as investors cycled to defensive value stocks mid-February and recession fears mounted through March. US equities toed the line on correction territory, and the NASDAQ Composite stocks had the worst quarter since 2022. Uncertainty loomed large as we hurtled towards April 2 and a hopeful resolution on tariffs.
(Download the full PDF here.)
Q4 – 2024:
The fourth quarter did not disappoint when it came to fast moving markets and surprises. While October was choppy leading into the Presidential election in early November, the post-election rally was nearly unstoppable, leading to strong returns across most asset classes. The highly anticipated Fed meeting and ensuing hawkish rate cut rhetoric mid-December doused water over the overly exuberant markets, bringing monthly losses and tempering confidence to close out the year. (Download the full PDF here.)
Q3 – 2024:
The third quarter of every calendar year is consistently plagued with bad omens and mottos including things like “Sell in May and stay away” among others. While historical data suggests there is a modest downward tailwind as summer comes to a close and the school year moves into full swing, Q3 2024 proved once again to go against the grain, bringing returns for the S&P 500 index of 5.53%. With catalysts varying from volatility spikes to long anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, it was three months of rocky markets that ultimately ended in new highs for many major indices. (Download the full PDF here.)
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